
INSIGHTS
INSIGHT THESES FOR INSPIRATION - AND FOR DISCUSSING!
Energy-dense industries are heavily affected by the trend towards renewable energy. Find out about our theses and how this impacts your stakeholder intelligence and data value.
These theses are merely food for thought. We would be happy to discuss their content with you. Contact us for more.
Energy Industry

The global Energy industry recognizes more than 75 possible applications for large-scale batteries. But from a value chain view, there are only three generically different sources of value a battery can exploit.
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Buy low & Sell high – the core of any trading business which is also called time arbitrage of electricity prices
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Insurance against system failure by providing time-boxed dispatchable energy, artificial inertia, and other types of capacity
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Grid Operating Services to transport energy efficiently to the consumer, for example, by deferring bandwidth costs and reducing congestions
Mobility Industry

Long-Distance road cargo will soon be carried by autonomous, fuel-fired tractor-trailers without driver cabins.
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Drivers are the biggest cost drivers and bottleneck of the road cargos
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Hydrogen economies of scale are enormous, as soon as they kick in
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Batteries eat too much cargo capacity in long-distance
Process Industry

Average ROI of Green Hydrogen production will not overtake ROI of Petrochemicals mining investments prior to 2040.
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Green Hydrogen is a niche commodity from the start, with huge growth potential
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Low-cost mineral oil miners have significant potential to extent the useful life of their assets
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Green Hydrogen experience curve stays constrained by pure physics of electrolysis
Energy Industry

System Operators (TSOs and DSOs) are the Best Fit Owners of grid-scale energy storage used for Grid Operating Services like Black Start, Investment Deferral and Congestion Management.
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TSOs and DSOs are the direct beneficiaries from Grid Operating Services
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Vertical integration helps to reduce strategy and operational management complexity
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There is no valid reason to let 3rd Parties keep the profits
Mobility Industry

Public Mass Transit will be carried out by battery electric vehicles with drivers in charge.
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Passengers and traffic want to hold humans responsible and accountable
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Night- and in-progress charging supplies more than sufficient energy
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Digital coupling offers urgently needed Supply Response potential
Process Industry

Carbon capture technology for hard coal-, lignite-, and mineral oil-fired power plants has a bright future with unforeseen growth potential in the ultra-long term.
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Bulk Chemicals are the physical foundation of a developed world
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Carbon is a largely indispensable raw material for most Bulk Chemicals known
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Extracting carbon from recycled products is way more complicated
Energy Industry

In a world of 100% Renewable Energy Generation, reliable electricity must be secured by large-scale batteries for short-, mid-, as well as long-term storage.
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Hydrogen is far too valuable to burn it in gas turbines
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Nuclear is far too expensive for intermittent use
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Fusion is far too uncertain to rely on
Mobility Industry

Air Travel and Air Freight will be carried out by conventional airplanes burning synthetic fuels.
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Although aircraft automation is much easier than on the grounds, passengers and population want to hold pilots accountable
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Hydrogen Economies of Scale are enormous, as soon as they kick in
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Batteries eat too much long-distance cargo capacity
Process Industry

Mineral oil will stay as the dominant source of Bulk Chemicals production at least until 2050.
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The cost of the commodity will stay low as the use of mineral oil as mobility energy will become partially obsolete
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Developed nations will avoid the need to change entire plant layouts due the risk of complete relocation to Renewable Energy Source (RES)-dense geographies.
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Carbon is a largely indispensable raw material for most Bulk Chemicals known
Energy Industry

For any country or region, Demand Response is the most cost-efficient and probably the fastest option to take care of the Duck Curve.
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Large parts of the value are in software which has always a cost advantage over hardware
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Consumers’ worrying about energy will keep consumption at bay
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Distributed Energy Storage Systems (ESS) always have synergies between core use and Distributed Energy Ressource (DER)
Mobility Industry

Outside of luxury niches, Passenger Cars will fully move to battery-electric propulsion with drivers in charge.
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Regulators and traffic want to hold humans responsible and accountable
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Night- and in-progress charging supplies more than sufficient energy
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Level-4 autonomy with digital coupling offers attractive new services for Original Equipment Manufactures and platforms
Process Industry

Wood will become the most valuable Biomass and crowd out agriculture in industrialized nations.
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Concrete will be replaced by wood as the most important building material due to its huge Life Cycle Costs (LCC) advantages
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Natural rain forests will be replaced by agriculture and fast forestry, and climate change will redirect agricultural subsidies of developed nations into reforestation
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Cost advantages of less developed countries will grow due to regulatory constraints and aging societies in developed nations
Energy Industry

A country’s Fully Loaded Cost of Electricity at 100% Renewable Energy Source supply has a hard floor, determined by facts which cannot be changed quickly or easily.
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Interconnected RES supply per Capita
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Scale-induced Buyer Power
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Demand Response capability, defined by the platform in place
Process Industry

Average ROI of investments in metals recycling will overtake ROI of metals mining investments before 2030.
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Large volumes of steel and aluminum will flow into energy generation assets, mostly located outside of industrialized nations
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Developing nations’ recycling material pool is growing much faster than in developed nations
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New, larger-scale recycling plants in lower-labor-cost, Renewable Energy-Source-dense geographies will attract the interest of investors and governments